Of the top 4 players in Clutch Factor over Expected per Point in the Australian Open women’s draw, 3 are in the semifinals. The fourth, Qinwen Zheng, is 29th. We look at tonight’s women’s semifinals by looking at how our model evaluated each of their journeys through the draw and end with a basic tactical analysis and prediction for each match.
(4) Coco Gauff vs (2) Aryna Sabalenka
The semifinal that everyone is talking about is a rematch of last year’s US Open final, which Gauff won. This time, Sabalenka is the defending champion, and the crowd on Rod Laver Arena should favor Sabalenka more than the decisively pro-Gauff crowd in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Adding to the incredibly high stakes of the marquee matchup and the Grand Slam semifinal (which has historically brought Aryna Sabalenka her own issues) is the fact that the winner of tonight’s first match will go into the Middle East swing with the #2 ranking.
Aryna Sabalenka struggles mentally with Grand Slam semifinals, though there is a real possibility that her incredible comeback win over Madison Keys in last year’s US Open semifinal may have relieved some of those issues. Ultimately, however, this match may come down to which version of Coco Gauff shows up. In this tournament, there have been two distinct versions of Gauff – the dominant version from Rounds 1, 3, and 4 who blew away Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, Alycia Parks, and Magdalena Frech and the vulnerable version from Round 2 and the Quarterfinals who squeaked by Caroline Dolehide and Marta Kostyuk.
There have been 121 completed matches (excluding retirements), yielding 242 player-matches. In her three best matches, Gauff’s performances ranked 8, 13, and 34 in Clutch Factor over Expected Per Point. The rankings of her two worst matches fell to 61 and 64. Sabalenka, on the other hand, has been consistently dominant in her five matches, with her second-round drubbing of Brenda Fruhvirtova ranking 18th and the other four ranking between 34 and 44. Both players have had incredible player ratings, with all 10 of their performances coming in with a CFOE rating over 3, towards the top end of the 242 player-matches in the tournament. But while this leaves Gauff in second ranked higher than Sabalenka in fourth over the tournament, Gauff’s lows have been considerably lower than Sabalenka’s. This has expressed itself in the lower Clutch Factor over Expected numbers, the fact that Coco Gauff has played three tiebreakers while Sabalenka has won every set so far by at least two breaks, Gauff dropping a set in her quarterfinal against Marta Kostyuk, and the time on court differential.
Aryna Sabalenka’s longest match of the tournament was her 71-minute win over Barbora Krejcikova in the Quarterfinals. Overall, Sabalenka has spent 5 hours and 13 minutes on court to Gauff’s 7 hours and 56 minutes.
Aryna Sabalenka has made quick work of a draw that has included two seeds and the highly talented Amanda Anisimova. Coco Gauff at her best has been more dominant than Sabalenka, but she has shown a lot of vulnerability more than once and she has had to put in a lot of extra work, including a long, hot quarterfinal. This match should be fun.
From a tactical perspective, Sabalenka will win going away if she can land first serves at a high rate and have some success using her crosscourt backhand to open up the court. Very few players can consistently win backhand-to-backhand rallies with Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff on a good day is one of them. Gauff will win if she can gain control of the rallies very quickly, not allow Sabalenka to break her forehand down very quickly, and use her speed and flexibility to make a lot of extra balls, force Aryna Sabalenka to get in her own head and be overly aggressive.
Prediction: Gauff in 3. Sabalenka will get her licks in – she always does – but her level will drop at the wrong time and Gauff will prevail in a tight one.
(12) Qinwen Zheng vs (Q) Dayana Yastremska
The second semifinal has two very surprising participants, both of whom are in their first career Grand Slam semifinal. Dayana Yastremska came out of the same quarter as world #1 Iga Swiatek. Qinwen Zheng came out of the same quarter as defending finalist and #3 seed Elina Rybakina, who lost in the longest tiebreaker in Grand Slam singles history, and #5 seed Jessica Pegula.
Dayana Yastremska could very easily have lost in the first round of qualifying, with a Clutch Factor over Expected ranking 82nd in qualifying. She made it through, elevated her rankings from 82nd in the first round of qualifying to 50th in the second round and all the way up to 7th in the final round, all of which went the distance. Since then, she has ranked 1st in Clutch Factor over Expected in the main draw, including two of the top 10 single-match performances. Like Gauff, she, too, has had some very low lows in this tournament. Her Clutch Factor over Expected rating in her Round 3 win over Emma Navarro ranked 68th and her Round 1 win over Marketa Vondrousova ranked 86th. But her other three matches, wins over Varvara Gracheva, Linda Noskova, and Victoria Azarenka, all ranked in the top 20.
Of the four semifinalists, Qinwen Zheng has been the least impressive. Her first career Grand Slam semifinal, which comes immediately after her first career Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open, is an incredible accomplishment. She is the first Chinese player to reach the semifinals of the Australian Open since Li Na, her idol. But her road to the semifinals was marked by a series of close calls. Among the four semifinalists, only three matches have had a negative Clutch Factor over Expected. Zheng registered all of them in wins in the first round over Ashlyn Krueger, in the third round over Wang Yafan, and in the quarterfinals against Anna Kalinskaya. Ultimately, the draw opened up and she fell out of it.
This match will probably hinge on Qinwen Zheng’s first serve. She can avoid the negative Clutch Factor over Expected and meet her potential if she can consistently land it and use it to take control of points. With that, she can do enough damage to the Yastremska serve to pull out an advantage. Otherwise, she will have a lot of trouble holding serve.
Prediction: Zheng in 2. If they can both keep their heads, both sets should be close, but Zheng should make enough first serves to reach her first Grand Slam final.
Comments