For a refresher on what all the metrics in this writeup mean, click here.
Of the top 4 players in Clutch Factor over Expected per Point in the Roland Garros men’s draw, 3 are in the semifinals. The 4th, Alexander Zverev, is ranked 21st. We look at the men’s semifinals by looking at how our models evaluated each of their journeys through the draw and end with a basic tactical analysis and prediction for each match.
(7) Casper Ruud vs (4) Alexander Zverev
Casper Ruud is the only player seeded below 4 to make the Final 4. He is here in place of Novak Djokovic, who withdrew from the tournament before their quarterfinal match with a knee injury. Alexander Zverev has had multiple scares this tournament. And this is a rematch of their semifinal from last year, which Ruud won in straight sets.
Alexander Zverev is one of the best servers in men’s tennis. Even at Roland Garros, where the slower courts tend to minimize the server’s advantage, Zverev has kept the Excitement Index on his serve very low, holding relatively easily. He has also applied fairly consistent pressure on his returns, putting up an above average Excitement Index in his return games in 3 of his 5 matches. However, in 3 of his 5 matches – including both of his 5-setters – he showed an inability to close, posting a negative Return CFOE.
Casper Ruud, on the other hand, has been in deep trouble on his serve in 2 of his matches. In hist 3rd round encounter with Tomas Martin Etcheverry, he put up a Serve Excitement Average of 0.34, nearly 2 standard deviations above the mean. His Excitement Average on return in that match was also very low, but he made up for it with the incredibly high Return CFOE of 8.53, including an 8/11 conversion rate on break points. Ruud will have to serve more like the first two rounds than his most recent 2 rounds to give himself a chance on the return.
Casper Ruud has played one big server in this tournament: Taylor Fritz in the 4th round. That match started out as a grind, until Fritz began to cramp up and his level dipped very quickly. Ruud was able to defend well, putting immense pressure on the Fritz serve to the tune of a 0.38 Return Excitement Index. Ruud will need to do something similar against Zverev.
Ultimately, Casper Ruud will likely dominate on the forehand wing while Zverev does damage on the backhand wing. So, whichever one of them can take control of the point first and bring it to their most advantageous wing will be in the driver’s seat.
Prediction: Zverev in 4. I don’t think that Casper Ruud will get enough looks at the Zverev serve to pull this one out. I think he will take a tight first set, but Zverev will take off from there.
(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs (2) Jannik Sinner
This one is the headliner. Carlos Alcaraz (20) and Jannik Sinner (22) are the top young players on tour. Both are Grand Slam champions. By next Monday, each will have held the #1 ranking. When these two play each other, the matches are almost always incredible. In fact, their battle at the 2022 US Open, the last time these two faced of at a Grand Slam, is 8th in Excitement Index of the over 5,000 US Open matches in our dataset.
When Jannik Sinner is able to grab the initiative in a point, it is pretty much over. We see that in his Serve Excitement, in which he has been nearly 3 standard deviations below the mean on 3 separate occasions this tournament and only above the mean once – in the first round. He has also had above average Return Excitement in all but one of his matches. While not as dominant as he was in his run to the Australian Open title, Jannik Sinner has had very little difficulty making it this far.
Carlos Alcaraz came into this tournament with a forearm injury and a lot of question marks. But after a little bit of a scare in the second round, he has been very impressive. He still has his trademark defensive skills, putting up a Return Excitement above 0.33 (0.29 is the average) in 4 of his 5 matches. Other than his second round match, he has surprisingly also had a Serve Excitement below the mean in every encounter. So, on top of his incredible defensive and shot-making skills, Alcaraz seems to be figuring out the serve, too.
It may have taken some time to get there, but this is a matchup between the two best players in the world near the peak of their powers. Both have been very impressive, and their styles interact in a way that makes for very exciting tennis. But I think that this match will ultimately come down to Carlos Alcaraz’s serve and Jannik Sinner’s return – the two relative weaknesses going at each other.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5. This one will be very close, but I think that Alcaraz will be able to rely on his serve and more rested legs as we get deep into the match. That coinciding with the match starting in the heat of the day will draw Carlos Alcaraz to a hard-fought victory.
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