For a refresher on what all the metrics in this writeup mean, click here.
We have reached the final weekend of the 2024 US Open. Jannik Sinner, Jack Draper, Taylor Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe will fight it out to win a historic Grand Slam title. We look at the US Open men’s semifinals by reviewing how our models evaluated each of their journeys through the draw and end with a prediction for each match.
(1) Jannik Sinner vs (25) Jack Draper
Jannik Sinner entered the US Open surrounded by controversy related to a positive doping test under unusual circumstances. But outside of a wobble in the first round and parts of his very strange quarterfinal against Daniil Medvedev, his tennis has been incredible. He has been good behind his serve, keeping Excitement Index numbers low for most of his matches. But he has been exceptional behind his return, creating numerous opportunities, as is reflected in his high return Excitement Index numbers and the double-digit break point chances in every match.
Jack Draper is the only player left in this tournament who has not lost a set. He has gotten here through creating chaos in his return games and timely serving. His best match behind his return was his quarterfinal against Alex de Minaur, in which he put up the 7th-highest return Excitement Average of any single match in the men’s main draw. His Excitement Index numbers on serve have been a little bit higher, but Draper has saved 25/28 (89%) of the break points he has faced throughout the tournament.
Both players will create opportunities to break. We predict that Sinner will create a lot more of them than Draper, but it will be a matter of opportunity conversion. This is where Draper has excelled in this tournament, but it makes him a candidate for regression to the mean.
Prediction: Sinner in 3. Our model has Sinner’s win probability just under 91%. Below are the simulated outcomes.
(12) Taylor Fritz vs (20) Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe has not had a good year. He came into the Cincinnati Open, 2 weeks before the US Open, at 19-18 on the year. But he always loves playing in the United States, and the people love him, too. He made the final in Cincinnati and has made his second US Open semifinal. At the US Open, only 3 of his 5 matches were completed. In those matches, he has stayed out of trouble in his service games, with a serve Excitement Average below the mean in all 3 completed matches, while opening up a few opportunities on his return, with a return Excitement Average higher than his serve Excitement Average in all 3 completed matches.
Taylor Fritz is in his first career Grand Slam semifinal. He has come through a difficult draw with his serve as a big weapon and an improved arsenal around it. In fact, he put up the lowest serve Excitement Average of any main draw match at this year’s US Open and the 5th-lowest of all 2900 US Open matches in our dataset (Fritz holds this record from his 1st-round match in 2023 against Steve Johnson).
To win this match, Tiafoe will need to rattle Fritz’s cage for Fritz’s service games. Fritz will hit a lot of aces – he has a very good serve and Tiafoe has been aced over 20 times in each of his completed matches. But Fritz can buckle under the pressure created by the occasion and the energy that Tiafoe and the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd bring to each other. If Fritz cannot land first serves at a solid clip (a typical reference point is 65-70%), that pressure could create trouble, especially if Fritz needs to win behind his second serve in big moments where the crowd wants to erupt.
Prediction: Fritz in 4. Our model has Fritz’s win probability at 80%. Below are the simulated outcomes.
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