For a refresher on what all the metrics in this writeup mean, click here.
Of the 4 players left in the Wimbledon men’s draw, just 1 is in the Top 4 in Clutch Factor over Expected per Point. And that is #4 Novak Djokovic. These semifinals are very similar to the women’s semifinals – one is a virtual toss-up, and the other with a much heavier favorite. We look at the men’s semifinals by looking at how our models evaluated each of their journeys through the draw and end with a prediction for each match.
[2] Novak Djokovic vs [25] Lorenzo Musetti
In the initial run of the Dweck Sports Match Simulator, started soon after the main draw was announced, Novak Djokovic was the most likely player – in either draw – to make the second week. But from the fourth round on, his ranking slipped in each round, all the way down to 11th to win the title. This is because Djokovic’s draw would get significantly more difficult: #15 seed Holger Rune in the fourth round, followed by #7 seed Hubert Hurkacz or #9 seed Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, and #4 seed Alexander Zverev or #13 seed Taylor Fritz in the semifinals, before facing whoever comes out of the murderer’s row in the top half of the draw in the final. Djokovic faced Rune in the 4th round and brushed him aside in straight sets. But from there, the big threats fell before getting to him – Hurkacz retired in the 2nd round, de Minaur was unable to play their quarterfinal matchup (both injuries sustained against Arthur Fils), Fritz beat Zverev, and Musetti beat Fritz. So instead of a vicious run through the second week of the draw, Djokovic got a dominant victory, an extended break, and the weakest semifinalist in the draw, who placed 23rd in CFOE rating.
Lorenzo Musetti has made his first career Grand Slam semifinal by the skin of his teeth. He has not won a single match in straight sets. He has played the most points and the most sets of any player outside of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who played qualifying before reaching the 4th round of the main draw (and losing to Musetti). To win his matches, Musetti has leaned on the application of pressure in his return games, with an above average Excitement Average on return in each of his matches. To beat Djokovic, he would probably have to hang around for a while and pull the match out in the later moments. Musetti’s win probability in this matchup is over 34%, but just 7% of simulations had him winning in 3 sets. So he will probably lose at least 1 set, but he needs to bounce back quickly. Of course, the biggest problem with this strategy is that the moments where Musetti would need to be strong are the ones where Djokovic has made his career.
Novak Djokovic has never rounded into form this year, and that has extended into Wimbledon, where he has been dealing with a knee injury sustained at Roland Garros. In his 2nd and 3rd round matches, Djokovic, considered one of the greatest returners of all time, showed some vulnerability behind his return, with below average Excitement Averages on return. He was pushed to a 4th set in each of those matches. But at Wimbledon this year, Novak Djokovic has been incredible behind his serve. He has had an Excitement Average on serve over 1 standard deviation below the mean (84th percentile performance) in all of his matches, and it was over 2 standard deviations below the mean (98th percentile performance) in all but 1 of his matches. Over this tournament, and the year as a whole, Novak Djokovic has shown vulnerabilities. But the areas where Lorenzo Musetti would do the most damage in attacking an opponent – hanging around and putting consistent pressure on return games – are not where the vulnerabilities are.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4 (65.5% win probability)
This could very easily be a quick, straight-set affair for Djokovic, especially with the rest advantage. But Musetti has not had a straight-set match at Wimbledon, so I think that he will pull out 1 set. In our simulations, he does so over 77% of the time. But over a full match, Djokovic will not let Musetti into enough service games to take more than that.
[3] Carlos Alcaraz vs. [5] Daniil Medvedev
While the other semifinal has all the makings of a run-of-the-mill blowout, this will be very different. These are the 2 biggest favorites to win Wimbledon. In fact, they are almost dead even in title probability, and they would each be favored to beat whoever comes out of the bottom half in the final.
Carlos Alcaraz has come through this tournament in two phases. In the first two rounds, Alcaraz was lethal behind his serve and piled on the pressure in his return games. This version of Alcaraz came through both matches in straight sets. Then, for the following three rounds, his quality behind his serve took a hit. In all three matches, Alcaraz has had an above average Excitement Average on serve. This means that Alcaraz has had too much difficulty holding his own serve. Also in those three matches, Alcaraz lost at least one set. Alcaraz’s level behind his return also dropped for the 3rd and 4th rounds, but seems to have returned in a big way for his quarterfinal matchup against Tommy Paul. The frequency with which Alcaraz can land his first serve should be a significant factor in this match.
Daniil Medvedev has been incredible in this tournament. In every match, his Excitement Average on serve has been below average, while his Excitement Average on return is above average. This is exactly where a player wants to be, avoiding pressure on his own serve while heaping it onto his opponents. But Medvedev has had an issue with finishing. He has had just one match with a CFOE rating on serve over 1.2. A typical rating in a victory sits somewhere just above 2. In a similar vein, he has not saved break points at a high clip, surrendering 50% of his break point opportunities in each of his last two completed matches. While this tends to regress to the mean, Alcaraz’s return is not what you want to see across the net while trying to round back into form.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5 (52.1% win probability)
This matchup is incredibly tight. Relying solely on form from Wimbledon 2024, I might pick this match to go the other way. But, based on performance since the start of last season, our model gives the slightest of edges to Alcaraz. One of the underlying models predicts points won percentage on each player’s serve. It has Medvedev at 65.1% on his serve and Alcaraz at 65.3% on his. That’s about as close as it can get. But Medvedev’s finishing problem could show up at the wrong time, giving a slight edge to Alcaraz.
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