Aryna Sabalenka seemed to pull that comeback out of nowhere. But what did the new Excitement Index see that everyone else missed? Madison Keys won the first set 6-0 and was up a break and serving for the match at 5-4 in the second. Sabalenka seemed to be self-destructing. She looked overpowered, was throwing rackets, and yelled at her box in a way reminiscent of her most brutal serving days in Adelaide in January 2022. The memorable moment of the early stages of the second US Open semifinal was Sabalenka dumping a backhand return of a 66 mph second serve into the net, turning around, and yelling at her box, while Madison Keys laughed from the safety of the other side of the net. But were they (and the commentary team) right? Was Keys really dominating as much as the lopsided scoreboard might have indicated, or should we have seen a comeback coming?
You can give all the platitudes about “never say die” that you want, but Aryna Sabalenka in Grand Slam semifinals has rolled over in more than her fair share of third sets. And while “never say die” and “never give up” sound fun in movies or on TV as ways to explain what just happened, there is usually more behind it. Excitement Index gives a look at why we might have been able to predict that comeback.
I now present the timeline of this historic match. Times will be listed in Eastern Standard Time. For Excitement Averages, 0.29 or higher makes a women’s match a “Tussle”.
10:23 PM: Match start
10:25 PM: First live Excitement Index. Four points have been played to this point, so the number does not mean anything. But it starts the clock on our 15-minute gaps between readings.
Score: 0-0
Excitement Average: 0.21
10:40 PM: Second live Excitement Index. At this point, the match is only 22 points old, so it is a bit too early to get a definitive read on the Excitement Index for the purpose of the email alerts, but it was already well on its way to being a Tussle. However, the first set was already slipping away from Sabalenka, and the pattern of the first set has already been established. While Keys is up 2 breaks, every game has been close. Both breaks came at deuce, and Sabalenka had an opportunity on Keys’s serve at 30-all.
Score: 3-0
Excitement Average: 0.38 (TUSSLE)
10:55 PM: Third live Excitement Index and end of Set 1. Madison Keys has made her move. Her ratio of winners to unforced errors is 13:5. Sabalenka is flustered and frustrated. She has gone to the bathroom, something she does very frequently after losing a set to allow herself a few minutes to be alone and emotionally reset before coming out to an uphill climb. Keys’s level for the first set was incredibly high and a bagel looks daunting on the scoreboard, but the gap is not as big as it seems. Continuing the pattern, every game but the fifth had either 40-30 or deuce, so both players had opportunities.
Score: 6-0
Excitement Average: 0.38 (TUSSLE)
This is when the first email went out. It surprised viewers with the prescient call of a Tussle despite the bagel on the scoreboard.
11:10 PM: Fourth live Excitement Index. Madison Keys looks to have made her move in the second set now. She has grabbed an early break, and she just has to hold out the rest of the match. The scoreboard still looks grim for Sabalenka, but things are starting to look a little bit better. She held the first game to love, and the other two games have followed the pattern of the first set, each being at 40-30 or deuce and Keys winning them both.
Score: 6-0 2-1
Excitement Average: 0.35 (TUSSLE)
11:26 PM: Fifth live Excitement Index. This match has gotten weird. Between two of the biggest hitters in the world, there have been three breaks in a row. Sabalenka is starting to show signs of life, but Keys still looks like a safe bet to take it in straight sets. Excitement Index still says to watch out.
Score: 6-0 3-2
Excitement Average: 0.36 (TUSSLE)
Note how high the Excitement Average has been in all but the first reading. Keys being up a set and a break to this point looks like a product of a mixture of luck and impeccable timing. In sports, that really matters, but it can turn on you quickly.
11:41 PM: Sixth live Excitement Index. Sabalenka is all the way back. From 5-3, she has won eight of nine points, and Madison Keys’s chance to serve out the match was dealt with swiftly. Game on.
Score: 6-0 5-5
Excitement Average: 0.33 (TUSSLE)
This is when the second email went out. Things have gotten very serious. It’s still a Tussle, but the Excitement Average has gone down. The players are relying a little bit less on timing and being opportunistic to put games on the scoreboard. It looks like Sabalenka might have started to find her game at the very last moment.
11:56 PM: Seventh live Excitement Index and end of set 2. This match is all square, and now everyone knows what the Excitement Index has been saying for an hour: this is a tight match. It will be a one-set shootout to reach the US Open final. Madison Keys has gone to the locker room and is about to come out with some tape on her thigh and hip. Sabalenka is not exactly a tiebreaker whisperer, but Keys gave her far too many opportunities in this one.
Score: 6-0 6-7(1)
Excitement Average: 0.33 (TUSSLE)
12:12 AM: Eighth live Excitement Index. The first game was a real missed opportunity for Sabalenka to go up an early break. After that, they both seem to have settled into the third set, holding serve relatively comfortably.
Score: 6-0 6-7(1) 2-1
Excitement Average: 0.32 (WAR); Excitement Total 46.8
12:27 AM: Ninth live Excitement Index. After a couple more comfortable holds, Sabalenka blinked. It looked like the same story as each of her previous three Grand Slam semifinal losses. She got into the third set, was set up well to come away with a victory, and lost focus and gave up an easy break. But this time, she broke back. Madison Keys got tight and Sabalenka came back, breaking back immediately.
Score: 6-0 6-7(1) 4-3
Excitement Average: 0.31 (WAR); Excitement Total: 52.2
This is when the third and final email went out. At this point, the first set is far in the rearview mirror, the scoreboard advantage that Keys worked so hard to build is gone, and the competitors are battling back and forth. We have a real war on our hands.
12:42 AM: Tenth and final live Excitement Index. There have been massive swings in this match, and there is time for just one more before one player makes a little bit of history.
Score: 6-0 6-7(1) 5-5
Excitement Average: 0.32 (WAR); Excitement Total: 59.4
12:56 AM: End of set 3. End of comeback. The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. What an incredible night of tennis.
The second semifinal of the 2023 US Open was heartbreaking. The hope being ripped away from Madison Keys in the way that it was is devastating. It was also historic. That was the second match in US Open history to end 0-6 7-6 7-6 (the first was last week). Aryna Sabalenka made it through despite her Grand Slam semifinal curse. Because of the schedule the rest of the way, that win went a long way in Sabalenka’s pursuit of the year-end #1 ranking. But beneath the roller coaster of extremes and emotions, Excitement Index saw that match for what it was the whole way: a historic, tight battle worthy of the biggest stage in tennis.
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