This column will include the best men’s and women’s match from this year’s Grand Slam tournaments, as determined by Excitement Index. Each match is presented with the associated Win Probability graph, which combines with the Excitement Index to tell the story of the match.
This year’s Australian Open was incredible. The combination of the Dunlop balls, the faster court surface, and the heat of the Australian summer led to an experience different from the rest of the season. In a tournament in which people who hit harder, flatter shots held an advantage, Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka triumphed.
The most exciting matches from both the men’s and women’s draw happened before any of the matches that really decided the tournament, with the latest of the two coming in the second round.
Andy Murray def Thanasi Kokkinakis, 4-6 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 6-3 7-5, Men’s Second Round (Excitement Index: 104.78, Excitement Average: 0.27)
With an excitement index of 104.78, the only men's match of the tournament over 100, Andy Murray's legendary escape was the best match of the men's draw. This was not just one of the matches of the tournament, it was one of the matches of the year. In the context of the Australian Open, this was Sir Andy's second consecutive five-setter and a historic comeback from down two sets to love, captured perfectly by one of the points of the year, which Murray won after saving multiple Kokkinakis overhead smashes.
During the first two sets, Murray showed signs of life. The first set hinged on the fifth game, where Murray saved break points, earned an advantage, and proceeded to lose the next three points to drop what would prove to be the decisive break. The second set had a major inflection point in the ninth game, when Kokkinakis broke Murray at love. Kokkinakis would go on to surrender that lead, failing to convert a set point while serving for the set, but he would win the set in a dominating tiebreaker.
The beginning of the third set is when Murray's win probability bottomed out, at 4%. He would go on to survive the set after going down a break two separate times and grabbing the decisive mini-break in the last point of a 7-5 tiebreaker.
In the first game of the fourth set, the match started to turn. The first highlighted section of the Win Probability graph starts with Murray serving at Ad-Out. He would go on to save that break point, starting the five-point run that really flipped the match. Kokkinakis would go on to hold from 0-30, and tight holds from each player brought the match to the beginning of the second highlighted section with Kokkinakis serving at 2-3 30-all. Despite his lead, our underlying statistics indicated that Murray had been having an easier time in his service games, so a singular break in a high-leverage moment like that could easily create the separation Murray needed to start running away with the match. After one deuce, that break came. When the Aussie's backhand pass went wide, Andy Murray regained control of the match. His win probability jumped by 27.5%, and for the first time since the fifth game of the first set, it was up over 50%.
After 4 hours and 38 minutes, the match was back even. The first ten games of the fifth set had one major scare in the seventh game, with Kokkinakis holding from 0-40. In the eleventh game, Murray created another opportunity, and his inside-out forehand cut a vicious angle off the court, giving him his first true lead of the match at 6-5. Murray served out Kokkinakis to 15, slamming the door on 5 hours and 45 minutes of glorious tennis.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Chardy def Daniel Elahi Galan, 1-6 7-5 6-1 6-4, First Round (Excitement Index: 94.89, Excitement Average: 0.34)
Brenda Fruhvirtova def Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. 3-6 7-6(2) 6-4, Women’s Qualifying Third Round (Excitement Index: 104.65, Excitement Average: 0.41)
I have to admit, I did not watch this match when it happened. But the fact that it is in this column shows two great benefits of the Excitement Index. First, it doesn't care what round it is or how many people might have watched the match. A spectacular match is a spectacular match, and this was definitely one of them. This was one of the only two matches in the Australian Open women's draw with an Excitement Index over 104 (none in either draw made it to 105) and an Excitement Average over 0.4, and both were in qualifying. Second, when a match like this happens in the future, you will get an email. You never have to miss a great Grand Slam match again, qualifying or main draw.
Back to the match at hand. At the playing of this match, the combined age of the two players was 35, the same age as Andy Murray at the playing of his match. On this day, 15-year-old Brenda Fruhvirtova took down 20-year-old Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in a very even match.
It was not always even. Bouzas Maneiro nearly ran away with the first set, going up 4-2 30-0 on her own serve after winning 3 consecutive games. A few points later, however, Fruhvirtova managed to get back on serve, thanks in large part to a miss from Bouzas Maneiro on an easier volley into the open court at 30-all. In fact, in that sequence alone, Fruhvirtova lifted her win probability from 21.5% to 51.5%. But Bouzas Maneiro broke in the next game and came back from 0-40 to hold serve in the following game, wrenching back control of the match, taking the first set 6-3, and lifting her win probability back up above 75%.
The 15-year-old Czech player sunk her teeth into the second set quickly, going up 2-0 in 2 deuce games and 40-0 in the third game. With some incredible returning, Bouzas Maneiro reeled off the next 5 points to get back on serve and bring her win probability back up above 65%. Despite the significant number of deuce games and the marathon ninth game, each player would only break serve once in the second set. In the tiebreaker, Fruhvirtova won an extended first point, then Bouzas Maneiro blinked. The Spaniard settled down after the changeover, but serving at 1-5, it was too late to salvage anything.
At one set apiece, the scoreboard was even, but our underlying statistics had Bouzas Maneiro in more trouble than Fruhvirtova on an average serving point, giving the Czech youngster an advantage over her Spanish counterpart going into the final set. Fruhvirtova backed up our numbers immediately, grabbing a break in the first game. After exchanging breaks for the first three games, the younger Fruhvirtova sister managed to hold on in a 14-point fourth game to keep her one-break advantage at 3-1. After a hold to 15, the young Spaniard pulled her break back in a hard-fought sixth game on a 30-40 backhand that skidded off the back of the line. After going up 30-0 in the following game, her win probability was back up over 45%. She got herself into trouble in that game, but thanks to some timely dropshots, shot making, and a strange decision from Fruhvirtova to back up off the net at Ad-In, Bouzas Maneiro held on for 4-3. In a match full of twists and turns, Fruhvirtova broke to love at 4-all and came back from 15-40 to serve out 2 hours and 53 minutes of non-stop drama. And when Bouzas Maneiro's backhand return at 5-4 Ad-In hit the net, 255 points of agony turned into pure ecstasy for Brenda Fruhvirtova, as the most exciting match of the Australian Open women's draw earned the Czech starlet her first career Grand Slam main draw appearance.
Honorable Mention: Kristina Mladenovic def Marina Bassols Ribera, 6-2 6-7(8) 7-5, Qualifying Second Round (Excitement Index: 104.7, Excitement Average: 0.4)
The most exciting match of the women's draw was in qualifying. The second most exciting match was, too. A subscription to the email service from dweck-sports.com will make sure that you never miss a qualifying (or main draw) classic again, including live, interactive Win Probability plots. Follow along during the 2024 Australian Open, with qualifying beginning January 8th and the email service beginning January 9th in Melbourne.
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