This column includes the best men’s and women’s match from this year’s Grand Slam tournaments, as determined by Excitement Index. Each match is presented with the associated Win Probability graph, which combines with the Excitement Index to tell the story of the match.
There is something special about clay court tennis. One of my favorite moments in tennis is when the umpire comes down off the chair to check a ball mark, something that can only happen on clay. Clay courts are just a little bit different from shot to shot, so you must be able to impose your will on the tennis ball rather than swinging as hard as you can. Roland Garros is a tournament for the fighters, and there is something I love about it. Excitement Index backs this up, too. 8 of the top ten Grand Slam matches in Excitement Total of all time – and 7 of the top 10 in 2023 – took place at Roland Garros. And in 2024, we get a double dose of the Parisian clay court spectacle, with the Olympic tennis tournament taking place at Roland Garros. They are hosting the boxing, too, but clay court boxing is a terrible idea (and they are not boxing on the clay).
Just like the Australian Open, the most exciting match of the Roland Garros women's draw was in qualifying. This time, it was actually one of the matches in the first round of qualifying that invovled a local Wild Card ranked #428 (typical ranking cutoff for qualifying is around 240). Each Grand Slam truly has 10 incredible rounds, and at dweck-sports.com, we bring you the best of all of them.
Andrea Vavassori def Miomir Kecmanovic, 5-7 2-6 7-6(8) 7-6(3) 7-6(9), Men's First Round (Excitement Index: 126.2, Excitement Average: 0.31)
By total Excitement Index, this was the most exciting Grand Slam match of the 2023 season. #2 was actually the women's match in this column, showing how great the tennis is at Roland Garros. This is made more impressive by the fact that, due to how recently they were introduced and how infrequently they occur, neither Excitement Index nor our Win Probability graphs include Supertiebreakers. When looking at the scoreline, a comeback from down two sets to love that went over 400 points and included three tiebreakers, the idea that this was the most exciting match of 2023 is very plausible. Let's take a look at how it happened.
The first set stayed tight the whole way, and it hinged on a long game at 5-5 on Vavassori's serve. After a couple deuces, Kecmanovic hit a beautiful backhand passing shot against a serve-and-volley to get to Ad-Out, and he followed it up with a very nice defensive point, getting the break when a Vavassori tweener landed just long. Those two points gave the 31 seed a win probability increase of nearly 30%. Kecmanovic came out of the changeover firing, serving out the first set at love. He would cash in on that momentum, making quick work of the 6-2 second set.
Kecmanovic flirted with running away with this match multiple times in the third set, going up a break after both the third and seventh games and creating a break point opportunity in the 11th game. But both times he broke serve he gave the break right back, and he failed to convert the break point opportunity at 5-5, bringing us to the first tiebreaker of the match. The tiebreaker went the same way as the rest of the set, with Kecmanovic going up mini-breaks and having four match points but being unable to convert those opportunities into victory. At this point, our Win Probability numbers are really starting to fluctuate again. The last point was a microcosm of the set, with Kecmanovic starting to attack and build opportunities before missing a forehand from inside the baseline about 10 feet long. Regardless of how it happened, Andrea Vavassori was showing signs of life as this match got into the fourth set.
This match started getting close early in the fourth. Vavassori broke to love in the fifth game and held that advantage until Kecmanovic served at 3-5. Vavassori looked to press his advantage, getting to 15-30 with a win probability of 63.3%. Vavassori was not, however, all the way off the ropes. Kecmanovic stormed back to hold serve, and Vavassori made a mess of a 30-0 advantage at 5-4. After double faulting and missing a backhand volley wide into the open court, we were back to 30-all. Vavassori threw in an ace for 40-30, but after trying to serve-and-volley on a lollipop second serve, the Italian's advantage was all but gone. After two more unforced errors, we were back on serve at 5-5. After trading breaks of serve again, Vavassori took the only tiebreaker in this match that did not go the distance.
For the second consecutive men's match in this column the match has gone from what should have been a straightforward, straight-sets victory to a five-set slugfest. This time, Miomir Kecmanovic holds the advantage with a win percentage just over 52%. After a break in the first game, Kecmanovic would serve for the match at 5-4 and hold a match point at Ad-In before surrendering that and bringing the set back to all square, the fourth set of the match to get to 5-5. After Vavassori held serve, Kecmanovic had to save match points on his own serve to get to the tiebreaker.
In the tiebreaker, each player had 1 mini-break before we hit 9-9. After Kecmanovic's Win Probability went over 95% in the third set, we were now at the third changeover and a two-point shootout to decide the five-hour meat grinder that the match had become. Andrea Vavassori would grab his second mini-break of the tiebreaker after Kecmanovic missed a high backhand long, before Andrea Vavassori made yet another serve-and-volley move, finished a short-angle forehand volley, and dropped to the court in celebration.
This match was almost a blowout multiple different times. But in the end, Andrea Vavassori believed, Miomir Kecmanovic did not convert his opportunities, and Vavassori came away with a 5 hour and 10 minute comeback victory.
Honorable Mention: Stan Wawrinka def Albert Ramos-Vinolas, 7-6(5) 6-4 6-7(2) 1-6 6-4, First Round (Excitement Index: 115.8, Excitement Average: 0.31)
Noma Noha Akugue def Emma Lene, 7-5 4-6 6-4, Women's Qualifying First Round (Excitement Index: 116.6, Excitement Average: 0.46)
At the Tour level, Roland Garros qualifying matches are some of the most difficult to find. While writing these match summaries, my analysis is heavily influenced by Excitement Index and Win Probability, but I still like to watch some of the important sequences to provide some additional context. So, this segment was almost about the Honorable Mention, Daria Kasatkina's 6-4 6-3 second-round victory over Marketa Vondrousova. However, I was able to find footage of this qualifying first round match between the German Noha Akugue, ranked 177, and the local French Wild Card Emma Lene, ranked 428. The two went at it for 251 points over 3 hours and 13 minutes, which was 10 points shorter than the longest Grand Slam match of the season and the longest this year without a tiebreaker.
The first two games of the match were close, but Lene took them both, going up a break. Noha Akugue turned it around quickly, taking 8 of the next 9 points to get back on serve at 2-2. Lene would hold at Deuce for a second time, and Noha Akugue seemed to be settling the match down, forcing an error at 30-all to bring her service game to 40-30. But after giving up an attack with an ineffective dropshot, slapping a forehand into the net, and missing a backhand volley with the entire court open, the German left-hander slammed a ball down in frustration after giving away another break to go down 4-2. It would not be in the Excitement Index if players served out their opportunities, so from 5-3, Lene gave up a break to 15. In the next game, Noha Akugue managed to wriggle out of a 15-40 hole to hold for 5-5. From 4-5 15-40 to 5-5 15-40, Lene's Win Probability plummeted from 74.1% to 33.5%, a decrease of over 40% in an eight-point stretch. After the double fault to go down break points, the Frenchwoman started to battle back. After hanging around in points long enough to force two Noha Akugue unforced errors, she was back to Deuce. It took five deuces, but Noha Akugue hung around in the game and managed her third break of the first set to grab her first lead at 6-5. It took a comeback from 0-30 and two deuces, but Noha Akugue would close out the first set, 7-5, on her serve, finishing a set that took exactly 100 points with a vicious inside-out forehand winner.
In the second set, the match settled down. After service holds in the first nine games, Noma Noha Akugue missed an attacking forehand long, double faulted, and dumped a Serve + 1 backhand into the net, Emma Lene opened up a 0-40 advantage and 3 set points, lifting her win probability from 26% to 47.4%. After giving two of those opportunities back, the local Wild Card created an error on a beautiful, high, heavy inside-out forehand return deep into the corner to split the first two sets.
After 2 hours and 20 minutes, 2 sets, 176 points, 22 games (8 points per game - it takes just 6 to get to deuce!) 6 breaks, and over 25 break points, our competitors settled back in for a 1-set shootout. And what a set it was. It started off par for the course, with Lene saving a break point to win the first game in 8 points. For the first time since the 11th game of the 1st set, Lene's Win Probability was back over 50%. The 2nd game also went to deuce, and on the second deuce of the game, Lene came up with a cutting backhand slice to force an error and then coming up with the goods with the backhand slice again, this time forcing a backhand error. For those of you keeping track, Emma Lene broke first in all 3 sets and lost the match. On a related note, 2-0 0-0 would be the Frenchwoman's highest Win Probability of the match, at just over 78%. As Lene started to limp and stretch out her wrapped left leg, Noha Akugue would go on to take the next three games, including two breaks, to take the lead 3-2 and swing her own Win Probability up to 84%. Lene kept fighting, jumping out to a 0-40 lead in the sixth game. Noha Akugue would battle back, taking the next five points to hold her own serve and refoucusing herself after whiffing on an overhead at 15-30 to win the next 2 points and take a commanding 5-2, 2 break lead. At 5-2, the German brought her Win Percentage up to 98%, and despite Lene's incredible display of toughness, the match looked all but over.
Even with Noma Noha Akugue serving for the match at 5-2, this drama was not out of twists. The German came out of the gate shanking a second serve for a double fault, and after a physical second point, it was 0-30. The 24-year-old Frenchwoman still had life. After Noha Akugue took the next 2 points for 30-all, Lene's defensive efforts shone through again, drawing 2 unforced errors off Noha Akugue's racket to bring back the first of the breaks. Her win percentage was higher now, but still below 10%. After Lene held to 30, including an incredible sliding short-angle winner in reponse to a dropshot at 15-all, Noha Akugue had one more chance to serve for the match, this time at 5-4.
After over 3 hours, the stands on Court 2 were full of loud fans, mostly cheering for their local player. And the women who had been battling for 237 brutal points would give them one final treat, with a 14-point, 10-minute final game that was just as tense and physical as the ones before it. When Lene earned her first break point at 30-40, the crowd chanted "Emma! Emma!", willing on their player. Two points later, Noha Akugue earned her first match point. When she sprayed a forehand just wide, she bent over her racket at midcourt and let out a scream. She would immmediately earn a second match point, which she squandered by missing a forehand just long off another low backhand slice from Lene. When Lene won the next point, earning a second match point, the chants of "Emma! Emma!" were even louder than before. Lene would barely miss an incredible defensive shot, sending the match to its final deuce. Noha Akugue put away a forehand approach shot to earn her third and final match point, which she took full advantage of, sending Lene the wrong way on another putaway forehand.
Noma Noha Akugue and Emma Lene put on a show for 3 hours and 13 minutes. Rallies were long and incredibly physical. There were no easy games. It was one of those matches where you hate to see either player lose. And even though it was in the first round of qualifying, it takes its rightful place as the best match of the Roland Garros women's draw.
Honorable Mention: Daria Kasatkina def Marketa Vondrousova, 6-4 6-3, Second Round (Excitement Index: 73.6, Excitement Average: 0.47)
The most exciting match of the women's draw was in qualifying. A subscription to the email service from dweck-sports.com will make sure that you never miss a qualifying (or main draw) classic again. Since ESPN does not own the media rights to Roland Garros, stream links may not be available during that tournment, but emails will still be going out with update. Follow along during the 2024 Australian Open, with qualifying beginning January 8th in Melbourne and the email service beginning January 9th.
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