This column includes the best men’s and women’s match from this year’s Grand Slam tournaments, as determined by Excitement Index. Each match is presented with the associated Win Probability graph, which combines with the Excitement Index to tell the story of the match.
The US Open is my favorite tournament on the tennis calendar. I was lucky enough to grow up a 45-minute train ride from the National Tennis Center in Queens, and my family spends the middle Sunday at the US Open as often as possible. In 2022, I was lucky enough to work at the US Open through my fellowship with the USTA. Though I had COVID during qualification week, I was able to come back and work in-person for the first week of the main draw. It is also home to the largest tennis-specific stadium in Arthur Ashe Stadium and the slower hard courts that I believe to produce the most competitive tennis between different styles of play.
This year, I attended both days of the first round of the main draw, so I was lucky enough to catch some of each of these matches. They were both very dramatic affairs.
Rinky Hijikata def Pavel Kotov, 7-5 5-7 6-3 7-5, First Round (Excitement Index: 94.42, Excitement Average: 0.31)
Former UNC Tar Heel Rinky Hijikata became one of the stories of the US Open. After receiving direct entry to the main draw via Tennis Australia's reciprocal Wild Card, he made it all the way to the fourth round as the 110th ranked player in the world. A week before he could face Frances Tiafoe in Louis Armstrong Stadium, he took down Pavel Kotov in a very entertaining first round clash. Despite not going 5 sets, and therefore not having the highest Excitement Index among US Open men's matches (an honor that would go to our honorable mention, Zhizhen Zhang's 5-set victory over Ohio State's own J.J. Wolf), it was close enough that the higher Excitement Average took it over the top.
The first 4 games of the match were all close. Hijikata held to 30 in the first game, which was more comfortable than it looked. The next game saw Hijikata grab some opportunities, but thanks to some timely serving, Kotov escaped with a hold. Hijikata got the third game to 40-30, but that 40-30 point, with Kotov not being able to get very much on the return but pulling out a nice backhand pass on the Return +1, was a major turning point in the game. From there, Kotov won a long rally at deuce and Hijikata missed his Serve +1 forehand in the net from Ad-Out, giving Kotov a break advantage and moving his Win Probability from 42% at 40-30 to 61% 3 points later. Hijikata nearly brought the break right back, but he missed an opportunity from Ad-Out and Kotov held for 3-1. But as our underlying statistics started to accumulate, our Win Probability model noticed that Hijikata was ready to strike back, so even down a break at 3-2, his Win Probability had moved up to 49%. And it was right - at 15-40, the man who took a set off Rafael Nadal at the 2022 US Open brought the match back on serve at 3-3. After an adventure of a hold in the seventh game for 4-3, Hijikata ripped a forehand into the crosscourt corner to take his third break point of the eigth game and run his streak to 4 games and an opportunity to serve for the set. Our model thought that he had ripped this match wide open, with a win probability at nearly 80%. But Hijikata failed to serve it out, opening the door for our first extended set of the match. After 2 straightforward holds, Kotov served for a tiebreaker, but when Kotov missed an attacking forehand long, the Aussie took the first set 7-5 and once again looked to be running away with the match.
It took exactly 1 game for Pavel Kotov to show that he was not going away, as our model predicted he might. After breaking in the first game, he would hold that advantage all the way to 5-3, with an opportunity to serve to bring the match back even. He pulled back a 0-40 disadvantage, but after 3 deuces, it was Rinky Hijikata's turn to break to extend a set. That did not last, however, as from 5-5 30-15, Kotov ran off 3 consecutive points to go back up a break. He finished off the set in the next game on a service winner. The match was back to even, and the Win Probabilities were coming back to even: still Advantage Hijikata, but now at only 53%.
The first few games of the third set were not simple, but they were holds. The fourth game gave us a four-deuce epic with Hijikata taking advantage of a second serve on Ad-Out and playing an incredible offensive point to grab the first break of the set. This started a run of 3 consecutive breaks, after which Hijikata would hold a 4-2 advantage. The Aussie would go on to consolidate that advantage, serving out the set to love from 5-3. It would seem like Hijikata would run away with the match again, but on this day, with these two players, nothing was that simple.
Pavel Kotov won the first 8 points of the 4th set and 10 of the first 11, looking to be in prime position to even this match up again and push it to a final set. But Hijikata answered with a run of his own from 2-0 30-15 on Kotov's serve, winning the following 8 points to bring the set back on serve. After a simple hold, Hijikata bailed himself out of trouble, facing down 2 break points and 5 deuces to hold serve for 3-3. After that, the two would trade breaks, bringing Set #4 to 4-4. Kotov held serve to love and Hijikata to 30, giving this match its 3rd extended set. At this point in the match, our Win Probability model was ready for Pavel Kotov to go on a run. Every time Kotov earned a half chance on Hijikata's serve, his win probability spiked. But the scoreboard pressure and multiple missed opportunities may have gotten to him. What had been a fairly effective first serve went off for the wrong few points, giving Hijikata multiple significant chances to break. The first serve came back, pushing the game to 4 deuces, but it was too late. Rinky Hijikata grabbed the final break of the match, going up 6-5. He finished off the match with an unreturned serve, winning 7-5 5-7 6-3 7-5.
This was a very tight, back and forth match. It ebbed and flowed, it saw both players consistently make signficant headway on many of each other's service games, and it had multiple extended sets. With no tiebreakers and no final set, it was never going to reach the heights of a few other matches when it came to Excitement Index. But the Excitement Average told a story of a good, close match that extended nearly 4 hours and began an incredible run thr0ugh the draw. And for that reason, it was the most exciting men's match of the 2023 US Open.
Honorable Mention: Zhizhen Zhang def J.J. Wolf, 7-5 7-5 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3, First Round (Excitement Index: 107.53, Excitement Average: 0.3)
Elise Mertens def Mirjam Bjorklund, 3-6 6-3 7-6(3), First Round (Excitement Index: 92.76, Excitement Average: 0.4)
Mirjam Bjorklund dominated Qualifying, dropping just 13 games over her 3 matches. In the first round, she faced off against multiple-time doubles Grand Slam champion and wily veteran 32-seed Elise Mertens, a major step up in competition. Over the first few games, it seemed like that step up would be too much for the 25-year-old Swede, dropping as far as 0-2 15-40 on her own serve for a Win Probability of just 22% 20 points into the match. Bjorklund reeled her back in and ripped of the next 5 games to build a huge, 2-break advantage in the first set. From 2-5, Mertens finally managed to break the streak. She would grab a 0-40 advantage in the next game, but Bjorklund pulled it back to deuce. 10 deuces later, Mertens pulled a backhand return wide and Mirjam Bjorklund had taken the first set. Our model thought that Mertens was definitely still in contact, with a Win Probability of 34%.
Mertens paid off that trust almost immediately in the second set, grabbing a break in Bjorklund's first service game. To this point, our modeling understands that Bjorklund is in the lead while Mertens is playing better. Excitement Average on Bjorklund's serve to this point was 0.46, while it was all the way down below 0.28 on Mertens's serve. So, the second Elise Mertens went up a break at 2-0 in the second set, her Win Probability spiked to 50.6% despite being down a set. In the next game, our model continued learning how much of a fight this match would turn out to be. Bjorklund would earn a break point at 30-40, which Mertens deterred with an unreturned serve. After 2 deuces, Mertens consolidated her break lead with a vicious Serve +1 forehand crosscourt winner. But after her first opportunity, the Swede settled into the second set, ripping off 13 of 14 points to bring the set back even at 3-3 and move her Win Probability up to 68%. After taking the next point, Bjorklund missed a makeable backhand return long, letting Mertens right back into the set. That was the first of 5 consecutive points won by Mertens, eventually leading to a break in the set's eighth game to put Mertens up 5-3. With an unreturned serve, she sealed the second set 6-3. Our underlying statistics predicted that Mertens came into the third set with an advantage, with a Win Probability of 55%.
The first two games of the final set were relatively straightforward holds. The third game held the first twists. After saving a break point from 30-40 and grinding through 6 deuces, Mertens reacted late to a hard Bjorklund backhand that skidded through the court and the set stayed on serve. Mertens immediately put the pressure back onto the Bjorklund serve, holding to 15. The next Bjorklund service game was another test, taking 5 deuces to hold for 3-2. In the sixth game, Bjorklund managed to gain some traction on the Mertens serve, earning a break point, on which she defended for her life before Mertens was able to put away a forehand swing volley. This game took only 2 deuces, but 6 games in, we were yet to have a break of serve. Despite the score remaining tied, Elise Mertens's Win Probability had increased over the set by approximately 17%. While their Excitement Averages had started to converge, our model had spent 187 points learning about our two contestants and how they matched up and determined that Elise Mertens was the better player. Therefore, the longer the set went without Mirjam Bjorklund going up a break, the higher the probability got that Mertens would win. And after one deuce in the all-important seventh game, Mertens managed to pull out a break. At 4-3, her Win Probability was up over 91%. However, she would give the break right back in the next game, allowing Bjorklund back into the set at 4-4. The ninth game also went to deuce, but Bjorklund would hold for 5-4. In the tenth game, Borklund ran the score to 0-40, earning herself 3 match points, to which the wily veteran responded by winning 5 points in a row to hold for 5-5. After a grind of a break point, Mertens earned herself the first opportunity to serve for the match at 6-5, with a Win Probability over 94%. But despite going quickly from multiple match points to the brink of defeat, Bjorklund reset nicely during the changeover and ran another return game to 0-40. Mertens was unable to fight her way back this time, with a lovely redirect at 15-40 earning Bjorklund the break and an opportunity at a Supertiebreaker.
For a reminder, our Win Probability and other statistics stop where a Supertiebreaker starts. But after the players exchanged mini-breaks in the first two points, Mertens finally cashed in on her underlying level of play, finishing the match off on an 8-2 run. This match was an epic. Bjorklund actually held an advantage in points won, 123-122. Despite our model never gaining much confidence in her abilities, she battled through every tough spot that the match presented to her before the dam finally broke in the Supertiebreaker. For 3 hours and 14 minutes, Elise Mertens and Mirjam Bjorklund gave the fans a treat, which just so happened to help set up eventual champion Coco Gauff's section of the draw.
Honorable Mention: Ekaterina Alexandrova def Leylah Fernandez, 7-6(4) 5-7 6-4, First Round (Excitement Index: 90.45, Excitement Average: 0.38)
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