This column includes the best men’s and women’s match from this year’s Grand Slam tournaments, as determined by Excitement Index. Each match is presented with the associated Win Probability graph, which combines with the Excitement Index to tell the story of the match.
In the rankings system, every Grand Slam tournament is worth the same. But to many players, Wimbledon is more important than the rest. It is the oldest of the Grand Slams, steeped in tradition. It is played on grass courts, the most difficult to maintain and likely the hardest to learn how to play on. "Tennis in an English Garden" is unlike anything else, and it is three glorious weeks of tennis in the middle of the summer.
Wimbledon is the only tournament where the most exciting match on either side of the draw happened after the second round. The men’s final, which crowned Carlos Alcaraz champion over Novak Djokovic, was an instant classic.
Carlos Alcaraz def Novak Djokovic, 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4, Final (Excitement Index: 93.81, Excitement Average: 0.28)
As the only Final among these matches, more words have been written about this match than the others. But that does not make it any less historic and incredible. Novak Djokovic was one match away from tieing or breaking so many records, many of which happened to belong to Roger Federer, and for the first set, his 20-year-old Spanish opponent did not appear up to the task.
The second set appeared to begin the same way as the first, with Djokovic bringing back an Alcaraz 0-30 advantage in the second game to get to 40-30. The Spaniard created an offensive opportunity and put it away to bring the game to deuce, and after two deuces, Djokovic made a rare unforced error to go down an early break, bringing Alcaraz's Win Probability up over 50%. After winning a long rally to break right back for 1-2, the pair held the set on serve for the next 9 games with Djokovic's Win Probability holding around 70%. When Alcaraz missed a backhand down the line just long on the first point of the tiebreaker to go down a mini-break, it appeared that Novak would continue his inpresssive run of form in tiebreakers and take what seemed to be an insurmountable 2 sets to love lead, but Alcaraz managed to get the mini-break back from 3-2 when Djokovic netted a drop shot and pull out an extended tiebreaker, 8-6, capped by a backhand down the line return winner from outside the doubles alley on a serve-and-volley. At 1 set all, each player's win probability was within 0.5% of each other. It was truly tied up.
In the first game of the third set, Alcaraz picked up a break after Djokovic dumped a backhand into the net from Ad-Out. With a Win Probability over 72%, Carlos Alcaraz had suddently gained control of the match. After an easy hold from Alcaraz and a hold from 15-30 for Djokovic, Novak built a 15-40 advantage on Alcaraz's service game from 2-1. Alcaraz's body language was starting to turn. But after a Djokovic unforced error, a framed second serve return, a tricky Serve +1 winner on a slice forehand, and an unreturned serve, the man known as Carlitos once again consolidated his break advantage, and the stage was set for one of the great games of all time. Anything I write will not do it justice, so I will say that after 14 deuces, Djokovic hit an error after an Alcaraz return took a bad bounce and the third set was well in hand for Alcaraz. 9 points and 2 games later, Carlos Alcaraz had taken a 2 sets to 1 lead and a Win Probability of 88.5%.
With Djokovic serving at 0-1 15-40 in the fourth set, his hopes of a record-tying fifth consecutive Wimbledon title were dwindling fast, with his Win Probability approaching 6%. But the great champion hit the reset button and started his climb back into the match, starting with taking 4 straight points to stay on serve. In the next game, Djokovic pushed Alcaraz to 3 deuces, but the Spaniard survived. After holding his own deuce game, the pressure went right back onto Alcaraz, and after missing a tricky half-volley, the youngster had cracked. Novak had life again and his Win Probability shot up to 27%. After each player held to get to 4-3, Djokovic ran off the next 7 points and 8 of the next 9 to bring this match to a final-set shootout for the title.
At 30-0 on his serve in the first game, of the fifth set, Djokovic's Win Probability crossed 50% for the first time since the third point of the third set. After what turned out to be 2 tense deuce holds, the first break came in the third game. After a wonderful point at 30-40 that included Djokovic falling down, getting back up, and going on the attack, Alcaraz hit a blistering backhand pass to grab the advantage and swing the Win Probability swiftly back to his side, getting up to 88%. From there, Djokovic did what he had to do to create opportunities. He held very quickly, building pressure game by game on the Alcaraz serve. But the incredible youngster held firm, and after forcing an error at 5-4 40-30, Alcaraz dropped to the ground to celebrate his second major title.
This was an incredible match. For 4 hours and 43 minutes, the very best of two generations of tennis gave the world an amazing treat. Both players nearly ran away with the match, but the ability of these two to produce brilliance through pressure brought the people one of the greatest matches of all time. The quality of the tennis on that day was so high that words cannot do it justice, so the best way to sum up the match is that Wimbledon has posted it on their Youtube channel and you can take it in for yourself - for the first or the tenth time - at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uFAkizQNJI&t=7s.
Honorable Mention: Lucas Pouille def Zdenek Kolar, 4-6 6-3 6-3, Qualifying First Round (Excitement Index: 67.49, Excitement Average: 0.31)
Natalija Stevanovic def Tamara Korpatsch, 7-5 7-5, Second Round (Excitement Index: 81.56, Excitement Average: 0.41)
On this match, I am going to have to break my rule about not having access to footage of a match. I only have video of Wimbledon matches from the Quarterfinals on, none of which had an Excitement Index within 20 points of this roller coaster. For 2024, I will make sure to identify the best matches of Wimbledon while ESPN+ still has them available. Anyway, this match is a rare matchup between two qualifiers in the second round of a Grand Slam main draw. To get to this stage, Stevanovich took down 2021 finalist Karolina Pliskova in the first round.
Every game in this match was a battle. It crossed the Excitement Average threshold for becoming a Tussle after the fourth point and only crossed back over one more time, after the ninth point, just for one point. The difficulties started on Tamara Korpatsch's serve, with her first two service games going to deuce. But she would hold on to her serve long enough to create an opportunity at 15-40 in the seventh game on Stevanovic's serve. Five deuces later, Korpatsch would cash in the first break of the match to go up 4-3. She would surrender the break right back in the next game after three deuces. The first 10 games would take 83 points to get through, averaging over a deuce per game. In the 11th game, Stevanovic was at 40-15, close to making it easy for herself, before letting Korpatsch back in it and taking 2 deuces to grab the critical hold for 6-5. The score ran to 15-40, but Korpatsch reeled Stevanovic back in before squandering two game point opportunities to give away a tight first set, 7-5.
Our Win Probability model thought that Stevanovic might run away with the second set, with her Win Probability running up over 80% after taking the first set. She started to do just that, grabbing a break in the second game, before handing it right back in the next game. Despite being back on serve and her Win Probability dropping from near 92% at 2-0 deuce, it only got as low as 81% at 1-2 15-0. From there, Stevanovic ran off 3 consecutive points to get to 15-40, but Korpatsch reeled her back in to get the game back to deuce. After 9 deuces and 8 break points, Stevanovic got back up a break for 3-1. The next 3 games followed the course of the rest of the match, with 2 deuce games and the other getting to 30-all, but there were 3 consecutive holds for 2-5 on Korpatsch's serve. After a hold to 15, the comeback was on. On Stevanovic's first attempt to seve out the match, Korpatsch broke to love. Despite being back on serve, Korpatsch's Win Probability was still below 20%. Stevanovic was just making too much headway in Korpatsch's service games. Excitement Average on both players' serves was over 0.39, but it was higher on Korpatsch's serve, and every game being close gives an advantage to the player in the lead. From 4-5, holds of serve looked to be getting easier, with holds to 15 and love to bring us to 5-6, with Tamara Korpatsch serving to stay in the match. From 30-15, Natalija Stevanovic pulled out 3 straight points to bring her first Grand Slam main draw appearance to the third round.
Despite Natalija Stevanovic's Win Probability never going below 69% in the second set, This match was wild. Over 2 hours and 43 minutes, almost every game was extremely competitive. It took 198 points to make it through the 24 games of this match. With break points giving some of the higest values to Excitment Index, this match managed to run up incredible numbers in just 2 sets. On a per-point basis, it had the 15th highest Excitement Index among Wimbledon men's and women's matches since 2013. If Korpatsch had managed to pull out one of the sets, it might have broken records.
Honorable Mention: Barbora Palicova def Kathinka von Deichmann, 6-3 5-7 6-4, Qualifying First Round (Excitement Index: 95, Excitement Average: 0.4)
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