The Dweck Sports Match Simulator simulates through a tournament to capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate expected rankings points to be earned during Wimbledon.
Over the first four days of the Wimbledon main draw, we have completed the second round, and the draw is really starting to take shape. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the second round of the men’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Alex de Minaur (+361 expected rankings points)
Since our last simulations, two of the seeds in de Minaur’s immediate path have been eliminated. On day 3, Thanasi Kokkinakis finished off de Minaur’s likely 3rd round opponent, 17-seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. And on day 4, de Minaur’s likely 4th round opponent, 7-seed Hubert Hurkacz, retired from his match against Arthur Fils. Replacing Auger-Aliassime and Hurkacz with Lucas Pouille and the winner between Arthur Fils and Roman Safiullin has caused a huge spike in de Minaur’s quarterfinal odds, from around 30% before the tournament and 31% after round 1 to over 76%, which trickled down through the rest of the rounds and moved him into 2nd place overall in Expected Rankings Points with 733. For de Minaur, realizing these expected gains would vault him to his career high ranking – world #6 (pending other results around him).
Emil Ruusuvuori (+212 expected rankings points)
Ruusuvuori made a lot of this gain himself, by defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the 2nd round. But the rest of his section has also opened up, and one of Ruusuvuori, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Francisco Comesana, and Lorenzo Musetti will be in the quarterfinals. Our simulator believes that it is most likely to be Musetti (+106 expected rankings points), but if it is not him, Ruusuvuori is sitting right behind him ready to pounce.
Roberto Bautista Agut (+112 expected rankings points)
Like Ruusuvuori, over half of Bautista Agut’s expected rankings points have come in the last two days. A lot of that impact comes from RBA even reaching the third round. Another major factor is #8 seed Casper Ruud, Bautista Agut’s likely 3rd round opponent, losing to Fabio Fognini in the second round. Our model favors Bautista Agut over Fognini, giving the Spaniard a major increase in expected rankings points. For Bautista Agut, realizing these expected gains would give him an inside track to securing a main draw entry to the US Open.
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