The Dweck Sports Match Simulator simulates through a tournament to capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate expected rankings points to be earned during Wimbledon.
Over the first four days of the Wimbledon main draw, we have completed the second round, and the draw is really starting to take shape. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the second round of the women’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Barbora Krejcikova (+240 expected rankings points)
Our simulator had not been high on Krejcikova even making it to the 3rd round. This is our first simulation since the completion of her first-round match, and as predicted, she struggled to make it past both Veronika Kudermetova and Katie Volynets. But the thing about the rankings system is that how you win does not matter, and Krejcikova is here in the 3rd round. And now that she is here, the increase in expected results from her initially projected 3rd round opponent, #6 seed Marketa Vondrousova, losing in the 1st round can be realized.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (+197 expected rankings points)
Danielle Collins (+167 expected rankings points)
Both of these spikes are significantly related to yesterday’s 3-set loss by #5 seed Jessica Pegula. There are actually two more big names with significant expected rankings points increases stemming from that match, but we chose to highlight these two because their gains set the stage for the biggest third round match of the tournament: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Danielle Collins. The fact that both players made such large gains while drawing into each other means that whichever one of them comes out of their match (we currently have Collins at around a 53% favorite to do so) most likely vaults herself into contention as we move into the second week.
Donna Vekic (+130 expected rankings points)
Vekic has been very impressive at the Championships this year. While the draw has fallen apart around her, she has remained steady and beaten whoever they put in front of her. With that being said, this gain is likely related to the match directly above her in the draw. The matchup between Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa will likely create a fairly large swing in Vekic’s odds. Our model favors Kasatkina over Vekic and Vekic over Badosa. Typically, this would be balanced out by Kasatkina being a much bigger favorite over Badosa. But in reality, Kasatkina’s win probabilities against Vekic and Badosa are within 1.4% of each other. The confirmation of the Kasatkina-Badosa matchup and the related increased odds that Vekic will not have to face Kasatkina combined with the opening up of her quarter when Qinwen Zheng lost on day 1 have vaulted Donna Vekic to 7th in both expected rankings points (407) and title probability (9.5%).
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