When evaluating success in a tournament, two of the main objective methods to evaluate a run are match wins and rankings points. The Dweck Sports Match Simulator calculates expectations for each of those metrics, using a modified version of Excitement Index to simulate through a tournament and capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate the expected rankings points to be gained by each player during the tournament (from 10 for a first-round loss to 2000 for a title).
Over days 5 and 6 of the Wimbledon main draw, we have completed the third round, rerun the simulations, and compared it to simulation results from after the 2nd round. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the third round of the men’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Tommy Paul (+143 expected rankings points)
Through his victory and the results around him, Tommy Paul’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the most of any man from after round 2 to after round 3.
The biggest gain for Paul comes in odds of making the quarterfinal. In fact, he had the biggest increase in quarterfinal odds in the most recent simulation of anyone in the men’s draw. This shows that the erosion of the other half of his section of the draw, giving him Roberto Bautista Agut as a fourth-round opponent, has significantly increased his probability of making the quarterfinals and battling it out from there. He does have a tough draw coming up, with Carlos Alcaraz still lurking in the same quarter.
Speaking of Alcaraz…
Carlos Alcaraz (+112 expected rankings points)
Through his victory and the results around him, Carlos Alcaraz’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the second-most of any man from after round 2 to after round 3.
The biggest gains in Carlos Alcaraz’s odds come after the semifinals, but of Alcaraz’s 4 potential semifinal opponents, all 4 are top-14 seeds and 3 are seeded in the top 10. So, we look towards the risers in potential semifinal opponents for Alcaraz for an indication of what matchup our simulator projects as good for Alcaraz. From that section of the draw, the biggest riser there is Daniil Medvedev. The simulator appears to have Medvedev as a good matchup for Alcaraz on the grass, so the increased odds that it will be Medvedev across from Alcaraz in the semifinals benefit Alcaraz’s odds of making the final.
תגובות