When evaluating success in a tournament, two of the main objective methods to evaluate a run are match wins and rankings points. The Dweck Sports Match Simulator calculates expectations for each of those metrics, using a modified version of Excitement Index to simulate through a tournament and capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate the expected rankings points to be gained by each player during the tournament (from 10 for a first-round loss to 2000 for a title).
Over days 5 and 6 of the Wimbledon main draw, we have completed the third round, rerun the simulations, and compared it to simulation results from after the 2nd round. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the third round of the men’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
In the women’s draw, these gains come in pairs. This is because both halves of the draw had significant upsets interfere with the progression of the players around them.
Jelena Ostapenko (+276 expected rankings points) and Elena Rybakina (+226 expected rankings points)
Through his victory and the results around him, Jelena Ostapenko’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the most and Elena Rybakina’s the 4th-most of any woman from after round 2 to after round 3.
These two are impacted by the third-round upsets of Ons Jabeur and Iga Swiatek, but the impact is different on each player. Swiatek came out of Jelena Ostapenko’s section, and the showdown between the two would have come in the fourth round. And Jabeur came out of Rybakina’s quarter. As the two players are in the same half of the draw, there is an impact on both players. Interestingly, the greater impact on Rybakina also seems to be the Swiatek upset. This shows in Rybakina’s odds of making the final, which have doubled to just over 23%. There was a gain in her odds of making the semifinal, but it was not quite that big.
Donna Vekic (+253 expected rankings points) and Emma Raducanu (+241 expected rakings points)
Through his victory and the results around him, Donna Vekic’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the 2nd-most and Emma Raducanu’s the 3rd-most of any woman from after round 2 to after round 3.
Vekic and Raducanu both came out of Sabalenka’s quarter of the draw. Coming into the third round, it seemed that the most significant beneficiaries of their quarter falling apart would be the higher seeds the remained – Maria Sakkari in Raducanu’s section of the draw and Daria Kasatkina in Vekic’s section. Raducanu took out Sakkari in fairly dominant fashion, and Kasatkina lost one of the best matches of the tournament to Paula Badosa, clearing the path for Raducanu and Vekic to reach the quarterfinals, where they would face off against each other.
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