When evaluating success in a tournament, two of the main objective methods to evaluate a run are match wins and rankings points. The Dweck Sports Match Simulator calculates expectations for each of those metrics, using a modified version of Excitement Index to simulate through a tournament and capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate the expected rankings points to be gained by each player during the tournament (from 10 for a first-round loss to 2000 for a title).
We have run the Dweck Sports Match Simulator after each of the first three rounds of the main draw and posted the biggest winners of each individual round (Round 1, Round 2, Round 3). Now, after the first week, we compare the results from the simulation after the 3rd round to the one before the 1st round to look at the biggest winners of the full first week of the men’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Alex de Minaur (+422 expected rankings points)
Through his victories and the results around him, Alex de Minaur’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the most of any man from after the draw was released to after round 3.
De Minaur is the leader in expected rankings points, with 784, but he is just 4th in title odds at 12.8%. This means that de Minaur’s half of the draw has cleared up. This starts with the player who was his likely 4th-round opponent, Hubert Hurkacz. Coming into the tournament, Hurkacz was one of the favorites, but he retired from his 2nd-round match against Arthur Fils. The other factor is Novak Djokovic, de Minaur’s likely quarterfinal opponent. Djokovic is in for a very tough battle against Holger Rune. Djokovic is favored, but not nearly as heavily as de Minaur is in his own 4th-round match against Arthur Fils. After that, our simulator has de Minaur as a very tough test for Djokovic. In fact, he may even be a slight favorite in that matchup.
Alexander Zverev (+292 expected rankings points)
Through his victories and the results around him, Alexander Zverev’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the 2nd-most of any man from after the draw was released to after round 3.
If Alexander Zverev were to make the quarterfinals, he would be a huge favorite to make a lot of noise on the final weekend. His likely quarterfinal opponent coming into the draw, Andrey Rublev, lost in the first round to Francisco Comesana. His gains are significantly limited by the fact that he has to make it through the most competitive matchup of the fourth round against Taylor Fritz.
Lorenzo Musetti (+288 expected rankings points)
Through his victories and the results around him, Lorenzo Musetti’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the 3rd-most of any man from after the draw was released to after round 3.
Musetti’s gains are largely limited to his own quarter. He was the likely third round opponent for Andrey Rublev, who lost in the first round. And he was also the likely fourth round opponent for Stefanos Tsitsipas. It would have been very difficult to make it through both of those matches to make the quarterfinals, so his initial quarterfinal odds were around 11%. But now, he faces Luckly Loser Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard for a spot in the quarterfinals, a matchup in which he is a big favorite. We still project him to have a lot of difficulty in a potential quarterfinal match against the winner between Zverev and Fritz though.
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