When evaluating success in a tournament, two of the main objective methods to evaluate a run are match wins and rankings points. The Dweck Sports Match Simulator calculates expectations for each of those metrics, using a modified version of Excitement Index to simulate through a tournament and capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate the expected rankings points to be gained by each player during the tournament (from 10 for a first-round loss to 2000 for a title).
We have run the Dweck Sports Match Simulator after each of the first three rounds of the main draw and posted the biggest winners of each individual round (Round 1, Round 2, Round 3). Now, after the first week, we compare the results from the simulation after the 3rd round to the one before the 1st round to look at the biggest winners of the full first week of the women’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Coco Gauff (+560 expected rankings points)
Through her victories and the results around her, Coco Gauff’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the most of any woman from after the draw was released to after round 3.
Gauff came into the tournament as the favorite to get out of her quarter of the draw, but a number of big threats lurked in the other quarter of her half of the draw, giving her an uphill climb to make it out of the semifinals. But most of those threats are gone. Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova pulled out of the tournament before it began. Qinwen Zheng lost in the first round. And Daria Kasatkina and Maria Sakkari lost in the third round. This leaves a very soft semifinal draw for Gauff if she were to get there.
Donna Vekic (+554 expected rankings points)
Through her victories and the results around her, Donna Vekic’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the 2nd-most of any woman from after the draw was released to after round 3.
Vekic is the favorite to come out of the third quarter of the draw and face Gauff in the semifinals. Vekic has played very well, but she has also been 1 round away from facing a tournament contender twice (Sabalenka, 2nd round and Kasatkina, 4th round) and avoided both matchups. Vekic is favored in her 4th-round match against Paula Badosa, and she should also be favored in a quarterfinal against either Emma Raducanu or Lulu Sun.
Jelena Ostapenko (+451 expected rankings points)
Through her victories and the results around her, Jelena Ostapenko’s prospects at Wimbledon improved the 3rd-most of any woman from after the draw was released to after round 3.
Ostapenko came into the tournament as a big threat, and she has largely blasted her own way through the tournament. In fact, over her first 3 matches, she has covered less than 2 miles on the court. Ostapenko made her biggest gain after the 3rd round, when her potential 4th-round opponent, tournament favorite Iga Swiatek, crashed out in 3 sets.
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