The Dweck Sports Match Simulator simulates through a tournament to capture the probabilities of each result for each player. We map those results to the formula for determining rankings points and calculate expected rankings points.
Over the first two days of the Wimbledon main draw, we have almost completed the first round, and 2 men gained over 100 expected rankings points. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the first round of the men’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+131 expected rankings points), Lorenzo Musetti (+112 expected rankings points)
The expected rankings points gains for both of these players are due to the same result. In fact, 3 of the 5 highest gains are all related to that result. Musetti has a big jump in odds at making the 4th round, and Tsitsipas has a big jump starting at making the quarterfinal. Both of these jumps come after the place in the draw where they would face #6 seed Andrey Rublev, who lost to Francisco Comesana, who has the 5th-highest gain himself at +85 expected rankings points.
Alexander Zverev (+99 expected rankings points)
Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz (+80 expected rankings points) are in something of a holding pattern. They are both contenders for the title, but they would have to face each other in the 4th round. So, as they each move through the draw and the permutations of the rest of the draw start to narrow, both Zverev and Fritz make gains in the odds of their results going from big points to titles.
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