Over the first two days of the Wimbledon main draw, we have almost completed the first round, and 11 women gained over 100 expected rankings points. Let’s look at some of the biggest winners from the first round of the women’s draw and what might have contributed to their gains.
Coco Gauff (+293 expected rankings points)
On the opening day of the main draw, the bottom half of the women’s draw blew wide open. #3 seed Aryna Sabalenka, #16 seed Victoria Azarenka, and #22 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, all of whom have a successful track record on grass, withdrew from the tournament. #8 seed Qinwen Zheng also lost, as did Karolina Pliskova, leaving no one who has made a Wimbledon semifinal in Gauff’s half of the draw. Gauff, on the other hand, came through a straightforward victory against Caroline Dolehide. With all these factors put together, Coco Gauff made the finals in nearly 25% of simulations, and, despite being 2nd in championship probability to Iga Swiatek, Gauff leads in expected rankings points gained by nearly 100.
Donna Vekic (+171 expected rankings points)
Vekic likely benefitted from the same factors as Gauff, with one key difference: she would have drawn #3 seed and tournament co-favorite Aryna Sabalenka in Round 2. Replacing Sabalenka with Lucky Loser Erika Andreeva, a swap that happened after our initial simulations, combined with the opening up of her half of the draw, leaves the 2023 Australian Open quarterfinalist in a vastly improved position.
Daria Kasatkina (+162 expected rankings points) made a similar gain, likely for similar reasons.
These are the three largest increases in expected rankings points from the first 2 days of the Wimbledon women’s draw, and they all happened due in large part to the same events blowing the bottom half of the draw wide open. So, let’s cover one from the top half.
Cristina Bucsa (+133 expected rankings points)
This is a huge number for Bucsa. In fact, realizing this gain would put the Spaniard into the Top 50 for the first time in her career, pending other results around her. And it is directly related to her second-round matchup. First, Bucsa came through a very tough match against Anna Bogdan, winning a super tiebreaker. And then came the major upset: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro defeated #6 seed and defending champion Marketa Vondrousova. Combining those two factors have more than tripled Bucsa’s odds of making the third round, now at 70%, and this effect ripples out through the rest of a potential run through the draw.
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