The 2025 Australian Open main draw is about to begin. Using the proprietary Dweck Sports tournament simulator, we simulated through the men’s draw 10,000 times to create data-driven tournament predictions. Here, we share some insights from those simulations.
Chalk at the Top
Just 3 players – Jannik Sinner (44% title probability), Carlos Alcaraz (24%), and Novak Djokovic (11%) – combine for about an 80% probability to win the title. Alcaraz and Djokovic are mostly limited by having been drawn into the same quarter of the draw.
If Sinner Stumbles, does Taylor Fritz Take Advantage?
Jannik Sinner is the heavy favorite to win the Australian Open. The other two favorites – Alcaraz and Djokovic – and even the next tier down – Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov – are all on the opposite half of the draw. So, if Sinner were to stumble, who reaches the final from the top half of the draw? There are three main options – Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, and Taylor Fritz. Our model favors de Minaur, who would face Sinner in the quarterfinals, and his 10% probability of reaching the final. But I am more intrigued by the prospect of the likely quarterfinalists on the other side of that half of the draw, Fritz and Medvedev. They are each sitting around a 4.4% probability of reaching the final, but if Sinner stumbles, the opportunity is there for the American to reach his 2nd consecutive Grand Slam final.
Alex Michelsen Makes the Leap
Michelsen, the 20-year-old former University of Georgia signee, is currently ranked #40 in the world. He faces off against #11 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round, but our model has him favored at around 58%. His second-round opponent would either be local Wild Card James McCabe or 18-year-old qualifier Martin Landaluce. Our model gives Michelsen a 50% probability to reach the third round, where he would face Karen Khachanov, a player who I consider something of a gatekeeper to the top level of men’s tennis. With a 33% probability to reach the second week, is this the tournament where Alex Michelsen makes the leap? We think it could be.
Most Vulnerable Seeds
#6 Casper Ruud – as a player seeded between #5 and #8, Ruud would be the highest-ranked player in the first 4 rounds. However, his probability to make even the 4th round is just 26%.
#11 Stefanos Tsitsipas – as mentioned above, he is an underdog by our model against Alex Michelsen in the first round. The draw does open up for the winner of that match from there, though Tsitsipas has lost to a Spanish teenager at a hard-court Slam to launch his rise into stardom before. Martin Landaluce is not Carlos Alcaraz, but that history is still there.
#20 Sebastian Korda – the oft-injured American is an underdog by our model in the first round against qualifier Lukas Klein.
#21 Ben Shelton – the former University of Florida Gator is an underdog according to our model against Brandon Nakashima in the first round.
The top projected results are pictured below
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