The 2025 Australian Open main draw is about to begin. Using the proprietary Dweck Sports tournament simulator, we simulated through the women’s draw 10,000 times to create data-driven tournament predictions. Here, we share some insights from those simulations.
A Clear Top Tier
#1 Aryna Sabalenka and #2 Iga Swiatek are the clear favorites to win the Australian Open. Swiatek (29% title probability) gets the nod over Sabalenka (24%) in pure tournament odds, but for this tournament, there is another wrinkle to the battle between the top two players: while Sabalenka is currently ranked #1, Swiatek has the inside track to return to the top spot after the Australian Open concludes. Our modeling has Swiatek’s odds at 61% to emerge from the tournament as World #1. That scenario is as follows: if Sabalenka does not reach the quarterfinals, Swiatek will be World #1. If Sabalenka loses in the quarterfinals, she would need Swiatek to lose before the 4th round. And if they both make the quarterfinals, Swiatek will be World #1 if Sabalenka does not advance farther in the tournament than she does.
Naomi Osaka’s Brutal Section
Just like last year, Osaka will face Caroline Garcia in the first round. Garcia won their 2024 match in two tight sets. Whoever takes that matchup will likely face off against Karolina Muchova, who dominated Osaka on the hard courts of the 2024 US Open. The winner of that match would likely face the winner of the first round battle between Tokyo Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic, who is making her return from maternity leave, and Jelena Ostapenko, a major champion in her own right who can beat anyone on her day. Our simulator gives Osaka the nod in the first round, advancing 58% of the time, with just a 34% probability to make it through to the 3rd round and just a 22% probability to reach the second week. Of the players in that section, 4 of them – Muchova (27%), Osaka (22%), Bencic (18%), and Ostapenko (14%) have better than a 1-in-7 chance of making it to the 4th round.
Explosive Potential out of Diana Shnaider’s Section
While Osaka’s draw may be difficult, there is an even tougher section near the top of the draw. #12 seed Diana Shnaider had her big breakout last year after leaving NC State. Young American Ashlyn Krueger has been playing well and is primed for a run. Marketa Vondrousova has had some recent health issues, but the 2023 Wimbledon champion is always dangerous, and the mercurial #18 seed Donna Vekic is always a threat. If they both make it, Vondrousova-Vekic would be a second-round blockbuster, and Shnaider-Krueger would be a very intriguing matchup in its own right. This section has 3 players with over a 20% probability to reach the Round of 16, and none of them is the highest seed in the section. Whoever makes it out of this murderer’s row would likely have the privilege of facing both of last year’s finalists (Qinwen Zheng then Aryna Sabalenka) to reach the semifinals, where they would likely have to face off with Coco Gauff.
Most Vulnerable Seeds
#4 Jasmine Paolini – the Italian would likely face Taylor Townsend, who our model may end up favoring, in the second round, followed by Elina Svitolina in the third. Week 2 probability: 18%
#10 Danielle Collins – the American would likely face the streaking Madison Keys in the third round, who our model would likely heavily favor despite being the lower seed. Week 2 probability: 8%
#11 Paula Badosa – the Manhattan-born Spaniard is projected to have some problems against Xinyu Wang in the first round. From there, however, it is smoother sailing to the second week. Week 2 probability: 32%
#12 Diana Shnaider – her section was discussed above. Week 2 probability: 13%
The top projected results are pictured below
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