We are very excited to announce the Dweck Sports Match Simulator, powered by our recent discovery of the predictive nature of Excitement Index. At Wimbledon this year, we at Dweck Sports will be simulating the remainder of the tournament before each round. With the main draw starting tomorrow, July 1, we have simulated through the full draw 1500 times and have created data-driven tournament predictions. Here, we share insights from those simulations.
Men’s Draw
A clear Top 3 has formed. Jannik Sinner is ahead of everyone, followed by Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz, who each also have better than an 11% chance to win the title.
Jannik Sinner is the biggest favorite on either side of the draw, with a 14.33% chance of taking the title outright and a 20.47% chance of making the final.
Andrey Rublev looks set for a breakout. Our model also predicts rankings points gained during Wimbledon, as determined by results. Andrey Rublev is 5th, with 364. This means that his average simulated outcome is slightly better than the 360 points you get for a Quarterfinal appearance.
Christoper Eubanks might be in trouble. He is defending quarterfinal points, which are keeping him inside both the Top 50 and the Top 100 of the rankings. This year, our simulations give him less than a 5% probability of making the second week (4th round). We predict his 360 rankings points to be replaced by just 43.
Novak Djokovic looks poised to make it through the 1st week unscathed. Our simulations give him the highest probability of any player to make the second week, at 63.73%. From there, however, we predict that his path through the draw will get more difficult very quickly. His odds drop to the 4th-highest probability to make the quarterfinals, 6th-highest to make the semifinals, 9th-highest to make the final, and 11th-highest to come away with the title.
The battle for highest-ranked American between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz could get very tight. Paul took over the mantle from Fritz coming into last week, and Fritz snatched it right back with a title in Eastbourne. At Wimbledon, we give both players at least a 9% probability of making the final. The two find themselves on opposite sides of the draw, but their rankings points predictions for Wimbledon have both players approaching quarterfinalist points. If they both make it that far, the player who makes it farther in the draw will become the top-ranked American man.
Women’s Draw
This draw is wide open. In fact, the simulator gives no player even a 50% probability of making the second week.
Aryna Sabalenka might be the biggest determining factor in how this tournament goes. She has said that she is facing a shoulder injury that makes it painful to serve. She also has the potential to draw Donna Vekic, against whom she is 2-6 head to head, in the 2nd round. Our simulations do not know about the injury, but they put hear on nearly level pegging with tournament favorite Iga Swiatek. Their difference in title probability is 0.27% (11.87% to 11.6%), and their difference in Expected Rankings Points Earned is 9 (468 to 459).
Based on our simulations, this draw has 3 tiers of major players. The third tier of favorites is defending champion Marketa Vondrousova, 2022 finalist Elena Rybakina, and 2018 semifinalist Jelena Ostapenko, all within 8 Expected Rankings Points Gained of each other. The second tier contains only Coco Gauff, a distant third in both Expected Rankings Points Gained and title probability. And the top tier, the two big favorites, are Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. Swiatek has not traditionally been very good on grass, but our model believes that she has improved enough to make her the favorite to come away with her 6th Grand Slam title and complete the Channel Slam.
Our dark horse pick to make a run is Elise Mertens. The unseeded veteran is 11th in Expected Rankings Points Gained. She finds herself in the second week in over 25% of our simulations and in the quarterfinals over 16% of the time. We expect the first-round matchup between Ekaterina Alexandrova and Emma Raducanu to have the 4th-highest Excitement Index of the 32 women’s matches scheduled for tomorrow and for Mertens to slide into the 2nd round and make it very difficult for whoever comes out of that blockbuster matchup.
COMING SOON: full Excitement Index predictions for Day 1 of the Wimbledon Main Draw, so you can plan your Wimbledon viewing experience
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